Cross border commuters who have been under “house arrest” in the Tantramar region and elsewhere may get a reprieve as early as June 7.
At a news conference on Thursday, Premier Blaine Higgs, Health Minister Dorothy Shephard, and Chief Medical Officer of Health Jennifer Russell announced the province’s “Path to Green” re-opening plan, an aggressive timeline which could see an end to all public health restrictions by August 2, New Brunswick Day.
The first of the three phases in the plan could kick in on June 7, if New Brunswick can reach a rate of 75% of its population 12 and over having received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
If we reach that goal, cross border commuters will no longer be required to isolate, though isolation requirements will still be in place for other travellers across the Nova Scotia border. The plan lifts isolation requirements for travellers from PEI, Newfoundland, and the bubbled communities of Avignon and Témiscouta in Quebec, but leaves Cumberland County and the rest of Nova Scotia under current restrictions.
Phase two of the plan could kick in on July 1, Canada Day, and would include Nova Scotia in lifted travel restrictions, effectively re-establishing the Atlantic bubble, at least on the part of the New Brunswick government.
PEI also announced a plan on Thursday that includes opening to the Atlantic bubble at the end of June, and Nova Scotia has yet to announce its plans.
Phase two would also mean that Canadians from outside of Atlantic Canada, with at least one dose of a vaccine, could come to New Brunswick without isolating.
LIFTED RESTRICTIONS ON GATHERING
Phase one of the plan would also see restrictions on gathering lifted significantly in New Brunswick as early as June 7. Contact with all family and friends will once again be allowed, with no Steady 15 in force. Indoor informal gatherings of up to 20 people, and indoor formal gatherings at 50% capacity with operational plans will be allowed. Outdoor gatherings won’t have size limits, but must happen with distancing between groups, and operational plans in place for formal events.
The second phase keeps that same gathering restrictions, and the final phase on August 2 removes all restrictions.
TIME FOR VACCINES TO “DO THE HEAVY LIFTING“
Dr. Russell said Thursday the new plan represents a shift from relying on public health measures to relying on vaccinations.
“It is now time for the vaccines to do the heavy lifting,” said Russell. “When at least 75% of New Brunswickers have been immunized with two vaccine doses, we will have the best protection against COVID-19, against serious outcomes, against hospitalization, ICU admissions and death due to COVID-19.”
Russell said protection would come, “without using the same measures that we’ve had to put in place all throughout the pandemic that have brought us to this point, and have protected our healthcare system.”
“Our health care system will be able to manage the cases that occur beyond that point, which has always been our objective,” said Russell.
But the targets set for vaccination are aggressive. To meet the first goal post of 75% with a first dose by June 7, another 116,000 New Brunswickers will need to get their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine in the next 10 days.
In the past 10 days, about 80,000 got their first dose, so in order to make the goal, the uptake on the vaccines will need to improve. But there are signs it has. In the past two days, the province reported 10,000 and 11,000 new doses administered. That level of vaccinations would be enough to get the province to the first phase by June 7.
For the second phase, which includes reopening to Nova Scotia, 20% of those 65 and over — about 34,000 people — must have received two doses of a vaccine. That’s a more modest target, because there are already about 37,000 people fully vaccinated in the province, of various age groups.
The goal post for the third and final phase sounds far off, but is doable at New Brunswick’s recent vaccination rate. For all restrictions to be lifted by August 2, 75% of New Brunswickers 12 and over must be fully vaccinated. That would mean about 600,000 doses administered in the next 9 weeks, or about 66,000 doses each week. New Brunswick has indeed hit that rate of vaccination in recent weeks.
HOSPITALIZATION AND OUTBREAKS MATTER TOO
It’s not just vaccination rates that trigger the phases of the Path to Green plan. At each phase, the province says hospitalizations must remain low and all health zones remain at the yellow alert level.
There’s still 10 days to go until the possible trigger of phase one, as Premier Blaine Higgs reminded New Brunswickers on Thursday. “Nothing is changing today,” said the Premier. “Only the hope and the reality of the changes commencing June 7.”
NEW CASES IN NB AND ATLANTIC CANADA
Public Health announced nine new cases Thursday, including one in a New Brunswicker isolating outside of the province. Three of those cases were in Zone 1, all traced to previous cases. Five are in the Fredericton region, and one is in the Bathurst region. The Bathurst region case is the sole new case under investigation announced Thursday.
There are now 137 active cases of COVID-19 in the province, and 28 of those are in Zone 1. 1768 tests were conducted on Wednesday, and about 10,154 new vaccine doses were reported administered.
Nova Scotia reported 33 new cases Thursday, and with recoveries the active case count in that province has dropped to 638. The Cumberland Health Network reported no new cases Thursday, and still has 11 active cases of COVID-19.
In PEI, no new cases were reported Thursday, and the active case count remains at 13.
Newfoundland officials announced 6 new cases, one of which is under investigation. The total active cases in Newfoundland is 89 as of Thursday afternoon.