At the beginning of a “tidal wave” of Omicron, Public Health asks people to reduce contacts without additional restrictions
The news was dire in a technical briefing yesterday from New Brusnwick’s department of health.
Mathieu Chalifoux, lead COVID-19 epidemiologist with Public Health, presented projections for case counts and hospitalizations into the next two months, showing a steep curve peaking at the end of January or beginning of February.
Chalifoux said over 5000 New Brunswickers can be expected to develop the disease daily by the end of the month. ”Over a five day period, this would be about 25,000 individuals, assuming 2.3 individuals per household. This could mean over 7% or approximately 55,000 people isolating at any given moment,” the epidemiologist warned.
Unlike the last projections presented by the province, these account for the increased transmissibility of the Omicron variant which is now dominant in the province, but there have been some changes since the projections were created. In early January, the province started to limit eligibility for testing. Those limits could mean official PCR numbers come in lower than the stated projections, unless results from rapid tests are included.
The province has started to report the results from rapid tests that are being voluntarily submitted by those who test positive with the take-home test kits. On Tuesday, there were 191 new positive PCR cases announced, along with 842 new positive rapid test results.
Chalifoux acknowledged that case counts based on PCR testing are underreported, but increasingly the more important metric is the number of people that will need to be admitted to hospital with COVID-19.… Continue
NB COVID update: still no cases, more testing called for
New Brunswick is continuing its streak of no new reported cases of COVID-19 in the province. As of Monday it’s been 9 days without a new reported case. Chief Medical Officer of Health Jennifer Russell shared the good news in yesterday’s briefing, but not without some reservations.
“We are no where near ready to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, as heartening as it is to report no new cases,” Russell said. “COVID-19 is still with us. It will be with us for a very long time. And we need to be able to accurately track its progress and contain outbreaks when they emerge until a vaccine or other treatment becomes widely available.”
Russell asked New Brunswickers to make sure they are getting tested when they need to. Currently, anyone with two of the following five symptom should be getting tested:
- a fever above 39 degrees Celsius
- a persistent cough
- a sore throat,
- a headache,
- and a runny nose.
Russell said the number of symptoms that trigger testing may be adjusted down in the coming days, to ensure that people are indeed getting tested. The province’s testing capacity is 1000 tests per day, however current testing numbers are not reaching that threshold. Currently, New Brunswick has completed just over 13,000 tests across the province, or about 17 tests for every 100 people. That’s on par with other provinces where the outbreak has been small. Russell said capacity will go up to 2000 in the weeks to come.… Continue