In the wake of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s announcement that he will step down, CHMA talks with Mount Allison University politics professor Mario Levesque about what a federal Liberal leadership race could mean for the Tantramar region, and the future of Beauséjour MP Dominic LeBlanc.
“The thing that jumps out front right now is that Mr. LeBlanc is probably one of the prime candidates to take over as leader of the party and be Prime Minister,” says Levesque. But, Levesque warns that it’s “buyer beware” for the top job of the governing party, given the certainty of an election in 2025 and low polling numbers for the federal Liberals. “Do you really want that job?” says Levesque. “Where it’s heading is over the cliff at the moment.”
But if LeBlanc does chose to run, “I think his chances are very good,” says Levesque, citing the longtime Beauséjour MP’s experience, wide ranging support, and fluent bilingualism. “What remains to be seen, though, is what his traction is in Western Canada,” says Levesque. “So that would be a question there.”
“Removing Justin Trudeau will help some of the vitriol that’s directed at the Liberal Party,” says Levesque, though it would help more if Trudeau had chosen to completely walk away. “If he completely disappeared and went away like today, you know, I’m now a private citizen, goodbye, then the party can appoint an interim prime minister,” says Levesque. “That would be a lot better overall for the party to kind of separate itself from Mr. Trudeau. But that’s not happening.”
When it comes to anti-Trudeau sentiment, Levesque thinks some of it is misguided. “I think they’re more so frustrated at the affordability crisis that we have in Canada right now,” says Levesque, “in terms of high cost of groceries, high cost of electricity, high cost of housing, if you can get it.”
“The government can’t fix this,” he says. “It doesn’t matter if it’s a Conservative government or a Liberal government… They have some influence over the economy, but not as much as people like to think, because we have a global economy now, and we’re impacted by global factors.”
Levesque says Conservative Party leader Pierre Poillievre has admitted as much in recent weeks. “He’s trying to soften things and temper people’s expectations,” says Levesque. “He’s even said openly in the media, well, you know, people have to be patient here, because we’re still gonna have to deal with this and try to make it work.”
But if the election were held today, polls indicate Poillievre would get his chance to tackle the affordability crisis. CBC’s poll tracker says there’s a 98% probability that the Conservatives would win a majority government, based on current polling.
But Levesque says, “a lot can happen” by the time voters actually cast their ballots. “It ain’t over until it’s over,” he says. “It depends on when the election gets called. It depends on who becomes the next [Liberal] leader. It depends on campaign platforms,” he says, pointing to a lack of detail so far in Conservative opposition messaging. “Leaders do matter, and campaigns do matter,” he says. “We’ll see.”
