The commission that will decide New Brunswick’s next election ridings has announced a round of public consultations over the next month, but they won’t be targeted at communities where changed boundaries are likely to be proposed.
The Electoral boundaries commission will tour through 12 locations in the province, chosen to provide “the widest access possible to as many citizens who may wish to make a presentation to the commission,” according to an emailed statement from commission staff.
Mount Allison politics professor Mario Levesque says the level of consultation is not enough.
“They need to at least double the sessions they have across the province to get better input,” says Levesque. He says he understands the inclination to save time and costs in having less thorough coverage, “but this is something I think that’s significant enough, more would be better overall.”
The closest consultation happening for residents of Memramcook-Tantramar is in Moncton at the Delta Beausejour on September 1, from 6pm to 9pm. There are also two virtual sessions that require pre-registration, happening September 1 and 12.
The last time a commission looked at provincial riding boundaries was in 2012-2013, when the riding of Memramcook-Tantramar was created. And this riding could be up for another change before the next election in 2024.
The former riding of Tantramar had about 20% fewer electors than the average in the province, which was problematic, says Levesque. “Whoever was elected here had a bigger voice, or it was easier for them to get elected, basically,” says Levesque. “So you want to try to balance that out across the whole province. That’s why they brought in the village of Memramcook and made it Memramcook-Tantramar.“
The provincial average of electors is known as the electoral quotient, and this time around it has risen to 11,714 electors per riding. The number of electors in Memramcook-Tantramar is estimated at 12,235 by Elections NB. That’s 4.5% above the electoral quotient, which is within the margin considered reasonable under New Brunswick’s legislation. (The Electoral Boundaries and Representation Act calls for a deviation of no greater than 15% in either direction.)
But the formation of Memramcook-Tantramar in 2013 left some concern over the minority of French speakers included in the riding, something opposed by the Societé de Acadians de Nouveau Brunswick (SANB). Memramcook had previously been included in a Dieppe riding, which while more urban in nature, meant that it was in a French majority riding. By joining Tantramar, the French community in Memramcook became a linguistic minority, making up roughly 30% of the new riding.
Back in June when the commission was first announced, the SANB issued a news release singling out Memramcook-Tantramar and Miramichi Bay-Neguac as ridings where, “the redistribution process had the effect of unduly reducing the Francophone electoral weight.”
Levesque says the representation of the linguistic communities in the province is critical, but there are different ways to achieve it.
The SANB is considering the perspective of “being able to identify with your own [MLA] in your own culture, in your own language,” says Levesque, which is “important to being able to live in your own culture, in your own language, and to express it, which is constitutionally protected. So from that perspective, that’s critical.”
Levesque says there’s also the consideration that in a bilingual province, “anglophones and francophones have to figure out how they’re going to get along, and figure out divided resources, infrastructure and whatnot.”
“The question becomes, where do you want that brokerage to play out?,” says Levesque. “One way is to have a francophone MLA represent the francophones, and an anglophone MLA to represent the anglophones, and then in the legislature, they try to figure out how they divide up the resources,” says Levesque.
Another way is to have, “mixed ridings like we have right now in Memramcook-Tantramar, where the candidate themselves have to take into the consideration the needs of both communities.”
Levesque believes there’s sound arguments for both approaches. “It’s really a tug of war,” he says.
There are also practical considerations in the effort to keep riding numbers roughly equal across the province and also restore linguistic communities. If the commission decides to separate the predominantly French Memramcook and the predominantly English Tantramar, each would need to join another community to remain within range of the electoral quotient. And while it’s not hard to find neighbouring French speaking communities, the closest English speaking communities that could join Tantramar are in Moncton or across the Petitcodiac in Albert County, which would pose travel challenges for any MLA representing those areas.
“My own preference is just to leave it as is,” says Levesque. “I think both can be well represented.”
He says that in the past candidates have expressed discomfort at the difficulty in representing constituents in two languages, but Lesveque doesn’t have much sympathy for the complaint. “Figure it out,” he says. “And if you don’t want to, well, then look for another riding to run in. From one perspective, it’s that simple.”
Check here for the full schedule of public consultations, and ways to weigh in virtually.
