New Brunswick is on a steep upward trend of daily new COVID-19 cases, even before taking into account the new more transmissible Omicron variant, according to a model presented in a news conference Tuesday by Dr. Jennifer Russell.
Russell says modelling suggests New Brunswick could see, “up to 250 new cases each day by early January and as many as 400 new cases a day by the end of next month.”
The model is based on current trends in New Brunswick, where the Delta variant is the dominant variant. The model’s author, UNB physicist Dr Sanjeev Seahra, confirmed that the steep projection is based on a model that does not include Omicron.
As of Tuesday, just 71 of the current 1268 active cases of COVID-19 in the province have been identified as the Omicron variant. The province has not shared specific details on where specifically Omicron is spreading, but on Monday, the department of health confirmed that the variant had been detected in four health zones so far: Zones 1, 2, 3, and 7.
Despite the steep upward trend in New Brunswick’s daily new cases, the number of people in hospital has remained steady for the past 12 days, sitting in the low 40s. And Russell pointed out on Tuesday that early indications are that omicron will not be as severe as other strains. But that may not prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed, said Russell.
“The sheer volume of cases will result in a larger number of severely ill patients that will put an even greater strain on our healthcare system,” said Russell. “No one should expect that we will escape the aggressive spread of this virus that our neighbours are already experiencing.”
Russell said while interim measures introduced last week were meant to help slow the spread, further measures would be needed in the days and weeks ahead.
New public health measures coming after Christmas
Premier Blaine Higgs was also on hand at Tuesday’s briefing to deliver news about those increased public health measures, which are due to come into effect after Christmas, on December 27.
Higgs announced the province will head into a slightly altered version of the Level 2 restrictions in the previously announced winter plan. The two-household bubble will be replaced by a Steady 10 system, to help align with what’s happening in other jurisdictions, said Higgs. Nova Scotia has also announced a cap of 10 close contacts for its residents.
Rules for restaurants will remain the same, at 50% capacity. And the reduced capacity will extend to other businesses including retail, and also faith venues. People are being asked to work from home if possible, and current measures limiting sports activities will continue.
Higgs said the new level of restrictions are being slated for between Christmas and New Years in order to give people and businesses time to prepare.
Public Health no longer taking on contact tracing
In addition to new measures coming next week, the province also announced an immediate and major change to how contact tracing happens. “Contact tracers will no longer be notifying close contacts of confirmed COVID 19 cases,” said Russell. “This will be the responsibility of those who are infected.”
Nova Scotia also made a similar announcement this week, in addition to changes in its access to testing protocols.
Russell said Public Health contact tracers will only contact the individual who tested positive or their employer, and will provide them with isolation and testing guidance, as well as instructions on how to notify the close contacts using template letters. “Public Health will only step in for contact notifications if no other means are available,“ said Russell.
Rapid testing ramps up
The province is also going to rely more heavily on point of care rapid tests, especially when it comes to school outbreaks. Dr. Russell said Tuesday that any school with a single case of COVID-19 will require all staff and students to perform daily rapid tests before coming to school.
Higgs said that “many of the recent positive PRC tests” came about after positive rapid tests first flagged possible cases.
“Having [rapid] tests available helps to give New Brunswickers peace of mind as they gather for the holidays, knowing that they are not passing COVID-19 to loved ones,” said Higgs.
Demand for rapid tests appears to be blowing up in the province.
Sackville experienced a rare traffic jam on Tuesday as people lined up in their vehicles to drive through a rapid test kit pickup site at the Tantramar Civic Centre. During the morning, cars were seen lined up in both directions along Main Street, from McDonald’s to the swan pond. Though rumours circulated of low supply, people reported picking up tests into the afternoon, after the traffic had cleared.
Last week, 680 packs were handed out at the mobile pick up site. In previous weeks, the average number handed out was about 425.
Sackville’s rapid test site operates weekly on Tuesdays, and will be closed next week for the holidays. A mobile unit is in Port Elgin on today (Wednesday), and for the rest of the week the closest location will be the hub site at 548 Mountain Road in Moncton, which is open from 1-6pm daily, but closing early on Christmas eve. The Moncton hub site remain closed over Christmas, reopening on Wednesday, December 29. Details on all Horizon pick up site are available here.
