With the provincial election approaching this fall, CHMA called up Mount Allison political science professor Dr. Mario Levesque to talk about the new riding of Tantramar and get his take on how the vote may play out here.
To hear the full interview, click below:
Premier Blaine Higgs is expected to drop the writ on September 19, triggering an October 21 election. But Higgs could do so earlier, triggering an election about four weeks later. Levesque sounds doubtful of that happening at this point. “I don’t see any advantage at all if he was going to call it earlier,” says Levesque, unless it were early enough to hamper the student vote.
An early September election “would create confusion among students,” says Levesque, which in turn “may sway some ridings that have a university, like ours right here in Tantramar, but also David Coon’s riding in Fredericton, and there’s the one riding in Saint John.”
Though he’s doubtful there’s any advantage, he also says he would not necessarily be surprised if Premier Higgs did drop the writ early. “He’s quirky that way sometimes,” says Levesque. “So, it could happen, but if the opposition parties aren’t ready by now, they’re never going to be ready. So I don’t see any real advantage overall.”
Incumbent advantage
Levesque says that current Memramcook-Tantramar MLA Megan Mitton has a direct advantage heading into the campaign, as the twice elected incumbent, who is “well rooted” in the riding and “well versed” on the issues. Levesque says if anything the smaller riding of Tantramar (with Memramcook removed) benefits Mitton, “because it takes away a lot more votes from the Liberals than it would from her directly.”
He also says Mitton’s engagement on files like road infrastructure and health care position her well in the riding.
But one of her opponents, Liberal candidate John Higham, has also been active on the health care file, as one of the co-chairs of the Rural Health Action Group, the formal liaison with Horizon Health network administration. Higham is also former mayor of the town of Sackville, which Levesque says means, “he’s probably going to give Megan a really good run for her money in this election.”
“The other wild card in this is that the Conservatives have chosen Bruce Phinney,” says Levesque. Phinney is a long time Sackville town councillor, and worked for years at Mount Allison. “He knows the university community well. He’s on town council. He’s been very vocal on various issues and oftentimes votes in ways that he disagrees with a lot of the left-leaning orientations of what council has put forth,” says Levesque. “So for the Conservatives, they have a very strong candidate in Mr. Phinney, there’s no question there.”
“It will be interesting,” says Levesque, “because all of a sudden, Megan’s going up with two other seasoned politicians.” But ultimately, the political scientist says, “the fact that Megan is the incumbent candidate here will tilt it in her favour a little bit.”
In a distant fourth, Levesque says NDP candidate Evelyn Godfrey will have her work cut out for her, trying to rebuild the NDP’s profile in Tantramar and throughout the province.
“Hurting Evelyn will be the fact that the party is largely disorganized at the provincial level,” says Levesque. “They’ve had a lot of difficulty fundraising as well.” He points out the NDP did not run a full slate of candidates in the 2020 provincial election. “There’s a lot of baggage there for Evelyn to take forward,” says Levesque.
Ultimately, Levesque is impressed by all candidates, and thanks all four for stepping forward. “It’s a big public service they’re doing,” says Levesque. “I wish them all the best in their campaigns.”
The return of campus polling stations
“You have to go to where the voters are,” says Levesque, who welcomes the return of campus polling stations this October.
During the last provincial election, not only was there no on-campus polling stations (either at Mount Allison or other university campuses), but some students in Sackville were turned away and told they were not permitted to vote by poll workers and at least one party representative.
Levesque says a strong education and training campaign is needed for Elections New Brunswick poll workers this year. And with that in place, he expects student polling numbers to increase. Which begs the question, “where do students park their vote?”
Levesque says, “right now there tends to be a large contingent of students that vote Green… but I think it goes in waves.” When Levesque first came to Mount Allison in 2012 he recalls more students polling Liberal. “Then there was a little bit of an NDP interlude there,” recalls Levesque, ”and then Megan came along, and now it’s Green.”
“All it takes is three or four really motivated students from a particular political persuasion,” says Levesque, “and all of a sudden, you know, students lean a different way or something. But right now, most of them on campus tend to lean Green, and secondly, Liberal. And then there’s small contingents of Conservatives and NDP as well.”
Top issues health care and rising costs
Levesque says the top two issues in Tantramar will be health care, and the cost of living and housing. Voters will be asking, “who can fix healthcare?” says Levesque. “We need doctors, here. Get us a model that works.”
On the housing and cost of living front, skyrocketing rents and grocery prices are forcing the issue to the fore. “People are tired,” says Levesque. “How do you make ends meet? How do you pay the mortgage?”
Education funding and local infrastructure will also likely figure into Tantramar voters’ decisions, says Levesque.
And Tantramar voters have a special status in this year’s election. Based on population numbers used to redraw electoral boundaries last year, Tantramar has the lowest number of electors in any riding in the province, with just 9059. Neighbouring ridings of Shediac-Cap Acadie and Dieppe-Memramcook both have over 12,000 electors. “We deviate by just over a third in this riding,” says Levesque. “So our vote has the most weight in this whole province.”
